THE first President Bush
has told his son that hopes of peace in the Middle East would
be ruined if a war with Iraq were not backed by international
unity.
Drawing on his own experiences before and after the 1991
Gulf War, Mr Bush Sr said that the brief flowering of hope for
Arab-Israeli relations a decade ago would never have happened
if America had ignored the will of the United Nations.
He also urged the President to resist his tendency to bear
grudges, advising his son to bridge the rift between the
United States, France and Germany.
“You’ve got to reach out to the other person. You’ve got to
convince them that long-term friendship should trump
short-term adversity,” he said.
The former President’s comments reflect unease among the
Bush family and its entourage at the way that George W. Bush
is ignoring international opinion and overriding the
institutions that his father sought to uphold. Mr Bush Sr is a
former US Ambassador to the UN and comes from a family steeped
in multi-lateralist traditions.
Although not addressed to his son in person, the message,
in a speech at Tufts University in Massachusetts, was
unmistakeable. Mr Bush Sr even came close to conceding that
opponents of his son’s case against President Saddam Hussein,
who he himself is on record as loathing, have legitimate cause
for concern.
He said that the key question of how many weapons of mass
destruction Iraq held “could be debated”. The case against
Saddam was “less clear” than in 1991, when Mr Bush Sr led an
international coalition to expel invading Iraqi troops from
Kuwait. Objectives were “a little fuzzier today”, he added.
After the Gulf War, Mr Bush Sr steered Israel and its Arab
neighbours to the Madrid conference, a stepping stone to the
historic Israeli-Palestinian Oslo accords, in much the same
way that the present President has talked about the removal of
Saddam as opening the way to a wider peace in the region.
In an ominous warning for his son, Mr Bush Sr said that he
would have been able to achieve nothing if he had jeopardised
future relations by ignoring the UN. “The Madrid conference
would never have happened if the international coalition that
fought together in Desert Storm had exceeded the UN mandate
and gone on its own into Baghdad after Saddam and his forces.”
Also drawing on the lessons of 1991, he said that it was
imperative to mend fences with allies immediately, rather than
waiting until after a war. He had been infuriated with the
decision of King Hussein of Jordan to side with Saddam rather
than the US, but while criticising the Jordanian leader in
public and freezing $41 million in US aid, he also passed word
to King Hussein that he understood his domestic tensions.
Mr Bush Jr, who is said never to forget even relatively
minor slights, has alarmed analysts with the way in which he
has allowed senior Administration figures such as Donald
Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, aggressively to criticise
France and Germany.
There are, however, signs that Mr Bush Sr’s message may be
getting through.
Father and son talk regularly and it was, in part, pressure
from Mr Bush Sr’s foreign policy coterie, that helped to
persuade the President to go to the UN last September.